Stablecoin supply and flow analysis — USDT/USDC mint-burn signals, exchange stablecoin reserves, on-chain stablecoin velocity, and capital rotation indicators f
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Track stablecoin supply changes, exchange reserve movements, and on-chain velocity to gauge crypto market capital flows. Stablecoins (USDT, USDC, DAI, etc.) are the "dry powder" of crypto — minting signals new capital entering, burning signals capital leaving, and exchange reserve changes reveal buying/selling intent.
Total stablecoin market cap is the single best proxy for crypto market liquidity.
# Stablecoin supply growth → crypto market liquidity expansion
# Historical correlation: BTC price and total stablecoin supply r > 0.85
stablecoin_supply = {
"USDT": 140_000_000_000, # ~$140B (dominant, ~65% share)
"USDC": 45_000_000_000, # ~$45B (~20% share)
"DAI": 5_000_000_000, # ~$5B (decentralized)
"FDUSD": 3_000_000_000, # ~$3B (Binance ecosystem)
"USDS": 2_000_000_000, # ~$2B (Sky/MakerDAO)
}
total = sum(stablecoin_supply.values())
Supply change signals:
| Supply Change (30d) | Interpretation | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| > +5% | Rapid minting, new capital rushing in | Strong bullish |
| +2% to +5% | Steady capital inflow | Bullish |
| 0% to +2% | Stable, no significant new capital | Neutral |
| -2% to 0% | Mild redemptions | Cautious |
| < -2% | Capital exiting crypto ecosystem | Bearish |
USDT (Tether) minting signals:
USDC (Circle) signals:
def mint_burn_signal(mint_events, burn_events, lookback_days=7):
"""Analyze recent stablecoin mint/burn events."""
net_mint = sum(e.amount for e in mint_events if e.days_ago <= lookback_days)
net_burn = sum(e.amount for e in burn_events if e.days_ago <= lookback_days)
net_flow = net_mint - net_burn
if net_flow > 1_000_000_000: # >$1B net mint in 7 days
return "large_capital_inflow"
elif net_flow > 500_000_000:
return "moderate_inflow"
elif net_flow > 0:
return "mild_inflow"
elif net_flow > -500_000_000:
return "mild_outflow"
else:
return "large_capital_outflow"
Stablecoins on exchanges = "buy power sitting on the sidelines"
# Exchange stablecoin reserve interpretation
def exchange_reserve_signal(reserve_change_7d_pct, total_reserve_usd):
"""
Rising exchange stablecoin reserves = buying power accumulating
Falling exchange stablecoin reserves = capital deployed or withdrawn
"""
if reserve_change_7d_pct > 5:
return "buy_power_accumulating" # Dry powder building up
elif reserve_change_7d_pct > 2:
return "mild_accumulation"
elif reserve_change_7d_pct < -5:
return "deployed_or_withdrawn" # Either bought crypto or left exchange
elif reserve_change_7d_pct < -2:
return "mild_deployment"
else:
return "stable"
Combined with BTC price action:
| Exchange Stable Reserves | BTC Price Action | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| Rising | Rising | Capital inflow + active buying = strong bull |
| Rising | Falling | Capital parking, waiting for bottom = accumulation |
| Falling | Rising | Capital being deployed into BTC = buying pressure |
| Falling | Falling | Capital leaving exchanges entirely = risk-off |
Stablecoin dominance = total stablecoin market cap / total crypto market cap
# Stablecoin dominance as a contrarian indicator
stablecoin_dominance = total_stablecoin_mcap / total_crypto_mcap * 100
if stablecoin_dominance > 12:
signal = "high_cash_allocation" # Market fearful, lots of cash on sidelines
contrarian = "bullish" # Cash will eventually re-enter
elif stablecoin_dominance > 8:
signal = "moderate_cash"
contrarian = "neutral"
elif stablecoin_dominance < 5:
signal = "low_cash_allocation" # Market fully invested, little dry powder
contrarian = "bearish" # No marginal buyers left
Velocity = on-chain transfer volume / supply
High velocity = stablecoins are being actively used (trading, DeFi, payments) Low velocity = stablecoins are sitting idle (holding, waiting)
def velocity_signal(transfer_volume_7d, supply):
velocity = transfer_volume_7d / supply
velocity_annualized = velocity * 52 # Weekly to annual
if velocity_annualized > 50:
return "high_activity" # Very active usage, likely bull market
elif velocity_annualized > 20:
return "moderate_activity"
elif velocity_annualized < 10:
return "low_activity" # Stablecoins idle, bear market / accumulation
Track where stablecoins are flowing across different blockchains:
| Chain | Primary Stablecoins | What Inflows Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Ethereum | USDT, USDC, DAI | DeFi activity, institutional usage |
| Tron | USDT (dominant) | OTC trading, emerging market transfers |
| Solana | USDC | High-frequency DeFi, memecoin activity |
| Arbitrum | USDC, USDT | L2 DeFi growth |
| Base | USDC | Coinbase ecosystem growth |
| BSC | USDT, FDUSD | Binance ecosystem, retail trading |
Cross-chain flow signals:
stablecoin_score = {
"supply_growth": 0, # -2 to +2: 30-day total supply change
"mint_burn_net": 0, # -2 to +2: recent large mint/burn events
"exchange_reserves": 0, # -2 to +2: exchange stablecoin reserve change
"dominance": 0, # -2 to +2: stablecoin dominance level (contrarian)
"velocity": 0, # -2 to +2: on-chain activity level
}
# Total range: -10 to +10
# > +5: strong liquidity expansion → bullish for crypto
# +2 to +5: moderate inflow → mild bullish
# -2 to +2: neutral
# < -2: liquidity contraction → bearish
# < -5: capital flight → strong bearish
| Source | Access | Data Available |
|---|---|---|
| DeFi Llama (Stablecoins page) | Free | Total supply by chain, mint/burn history |
| Glassnode | Paid (limited free) | Exchange reserves, on-chain velocity |
| CryptoQuant | Paid (limited free) | Exchange stablecoin reserves, flow metrics |
| Tether Transparency | Free | USDT reserves and attestation |
| Circle USDC Stats | Free | USDC supply and redemption data |
| Dune Analytics | Free | Custom stablecoin queries |
| Nansen | Paid | Smart money stablecoin flows |
Use read_url tool to access web-based data sources.
## Stablecoin Flow Analysis — [Date Range]
### Supply Overview
| Stablecoin | Supply | 7d Change | 30d Change |
|------------|--------|-----------|------------|
| USDT | $XXX B | +X.X% | +X.X% |
| USDC | $XX B | +X.X% | +X.X% |
| Total | $XXX B | +X.X% | +X.X% |
### Mint/Burn Events (7 days)
- **Net minting**: +$X.X B
- **Largest events**: [Tether minted $500M on DATE, Circle burned $200M on DATE]
- **Signal**: [large capital inflow / mild / outflow]
### Exchange Reserves
- **Total stablecoins on exchanges**: $XX B
- **7d change**: [+/- X.X%]
- **Interpretation**: [buy power accumulating / deployed / withdrawn]
### Stablecoin Dominance
- **Current**: X.X%
- **30d ago**: X.X%
- **Signal**: [high cash = contrarian bullish / low cash = contrarian bearish]
### Chain Distribution Shifts
- **Inflow chains**: [Solana +$XM, Arbitrum +$XM]
- **Outflow chains**: [Tron -$XM]
- **Interpretation**: [DeFi expansion / speculative activity / capital consolidation]
### Composite Signal
| Dimension | Score (-2~+2) | Basis |
|-----------|---------------|-------|
| Supply growth | +2 | +4% in 30 days |
| Mint/burn | +1 | Net $1.2B minted this week |
| Exchange reserves | +1 | Reserves up 3% |
| Dominance | 0 | 8.5%, neutral range |
| Velocity | +1 | Rising on-chain activity |
### Market Implication
- **Liquidity outlook**: [expanding / stable / contracting]
- **Direction**: [bullish / neutral / bearish]
- **Key watch**: [next large mint event, USDC/USDT ratio trend]