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description: Forward bookings / billings / ARR forecast with funnel + cohort math + conversion-assumption disclosure. NOT financial close (finance). Direct invocation of the commercial-forecaster skill. argument-hint: "<pipeline export path or cohort + funnel data>"

/cs:commercial-forecast — Forward bookings + cohort ARR + funnel confidence

Run the commercial-forecaster skill on this input:

$ARGUMENTS

Three-tool workflow

1. bookings_forecaster.py — Stage-conversion based bookings forecast using last-4-quarters weighted (most recent heavier). Outputs commit / best-case / pipe-only. Industry tuning --profile {saas,api,enterprise-software,marketplace,services}.

2. cohort_arr_projector.py — NRR + GRR projection by acquisition cohort. Surfaces leaky cohorts before they show up in the consolidated NRR number.

3. funnel_confidence_scorer.py — Confidence band per stage: how stable is the conversion rate q-over-q? High variance = low confidence forecast.

Hard rule

Conversion assumption ALWAYS surfaced explicitly. Forecasts without disclosed assumptions are theatre. The output names the conversion rate used and the data window it's based on.

Distinct from

• finance/financial-analysis — close + report (backward-looking). Commercial-forecaster is forward commercial pipeline.
• c-level-advisor/cfo-advisor — strategic financial planning. Commercial-forecaster is tactical, per-quarter.
• c-level-advisor/cro-advisor — strategic CRO. Commercial-forecaster feeds CRO judgment.
• Sibling pricing-strategist — sets prices; commercial-forecaster projects revenue at those prices.